India added approximately 26GW of solar capacity and 3GW of wind capacity during the first half of 2026, according to JMK Research.
Why it matters: India’s massive volume is absorbing the global module surplus, meaning the era of ultra-cheap, 'dumped' panels in Europe is likely hitting its floor right now.
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The Rotterdam Glut is Meeting its Match
For the past 18 months, European installers have lived in a fantasy land of oversupply. We’ve seen Tier-1 TopCon modules trading at insulting prices—sometimes as low as €0.11/Wp—simply because Chinese manufacturers had nowhere else to dump their excess capacity. That era of accidental charity is closing. India’s 26GW half-year performance proves that the global supply-demand equilibrium is shifting violently toward the East.
The ALMM Factor and Supply Chain Gravity
India isn't just buying 'cheap' panels; they are building a massive, protected ecosystem. Through the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), the Indian government has forced a level of domestic assembly that is now reaching critical mass. However, they still rely on Chinese silicon and wafers. When India installs at a rate of 1GW per week, they aren't just 'growing'—they are sucking the oxygen out of the global upstream supply chain. If you think the warehouses in Valencia or Antwerp will stay overstocked while India clears 50GW+ a year, you’re ignoring basic physics.
Stop Waiting for the Absolute Bottom
We’ve seen this pattern before. In 2021, everyone waited for prices to drop further, only to get hit by a logistics and silicon spike that wiped out margins on pre-sold projects. Currently, brands like Jinko Solar and JA Solar are seeing massive volume pull from the Indian utility sector. For a Portuguese or German installer, this means the 'fire sale' modules you've been picking up from secondary distributors are about to dry up. If you have C&I projects on the books for late 2026, locking in hardware prices now isn't just cautious—it's the only way to protect your spread before the global allocation shifts away from Europe.